Carefull poker II

A title change and a new beginning

I wasn’t feeling well when I wrote my last entry. Now that I read it again I am surprised at just how bad I write when I am sleepy and feeling ill. I was planning on rewriting or editing the entry. But I think my energy is best used just writing a new post.
The first change I’ll make is renaming my style from Carefull Bet Poker to Carefull Poker. The “bet” part I feel is misleading. I’ll also try to explain how I play with a more general introduction than I did in my last entry.

I play poker carefully. Meaning that I don’t like investing alot of money in a hand, unless I am pretty certain it is the best hand. That doesn’t mean that I fold when I am unsure that I have the best hand and this is very important, it just means that I try to keep the pot small.
The reason I brought up pocket Aces in my last entry is because they explain this idea quite well. Pre-flop pocket Aces are the best hand, therefore I try my best to get as much money into the middle as I can. The reason again being that I know I have the best hand. Most often though that only means that I raise and get a caller or two.
After the flop however, unless an Ace comes, the strength of my hand changes. From being sure that I had best hand, now there are a number of hands my opponents can hold that beat me. I still have an overpair, so I am not trying to talk myself into folding the hand, I’ll just try to bet my hand in a way so as to keep the pot small, while at the same time not giving pot odds for draws to be correct.

Carefull Poker’s theory is that in the long run it is more profitable to play big pots with big hands and small pots with small hands. The idea is simple and I started playing this way when I figured out that theory. Since then I have found the style to be profitable, well suited to my image and having some extra benefits that are not quite so simple.
Like all styles of play, Carefull Poker has its disadvantages. Yet since the style hasn’t been widely explored in poker litterature, few players know how to exploit it.

I’ll end here for now. I have re-read this entry and already I like it much better than my post from the 21st. In future posts I plan to start including some sample hands of the way I play, both from my own sessions and from observed sessions from well known poker players.

Links of interest:

Poker strategy: Learning to win
Music: Ukulele magic

Carefull bet poker

How to play hands post flop is a hard subject to write about. My answer to a simple questions about hands is often: "It depends", because much of the edge I have over my opponents comes from observing how they play and recognizing styles.
Before I can answer if I would have called or folded in a specific situation, I not only need to know how my opponent has played up until now, I need to know how I have played up until now. Therefore my answer to a hand question without reads often isn't more accurate than a novices answer. Without the reads much of my edge has dissapeared.

I will still try to write about the subject I think is greatly missing in poker literature: Post flop play in NL Hold'em, but it will take more than one article. I'll dub the way I play carefull bet poker and that will be the title of a series of diary entries on the subject.

Pocket Aces, always a welcomed sight, is the strongest starting hand in poker. Yet on most flops it is the second lowest ranked hand!
I have no qualms about putting all my money into the middle with a pair of Aces pre flop. But once the flop is out, if it didn't improve my hand, I often try my best not to get all my money in the middle. I know that this will come across as stupid advise to alot of people, but before you label me as a noob, consider the following.

What if, for a couple of hands, you could change the size of the pot through magical means. The amount of money you'd contribute to the pot would also change, relative to the pot size. Just before showdown, without knowing your opponents cards the dealer would ask you how big you would like the pot to be.
It is obvious that this is a profitable ability to have. And if you think about it, it is quite simple when you want the pot to be big and when you want the pot to be small. With a full house you want as big a pot as possible and with one pair you want to keep it small. Much of the time by the river, that is all that pocket Aces are, one pair.

With that in mind I try to control the size of the pot as the strength of my hand changes. With pocket Aces pre flop I am sure I have the best hand, so I want as much money in the middle as is possible. I have the nuts. After the flop, if I only have and overpair to the flop, the strength of my hand has been greatly reduced. It should be only natural that the amount of money I'd like to invest in the hand changes aswell.
I feel much more confident betting with [ Ac, Ah ] as my starting hand, than I do holding [ Jc, Jh ] . After the flop comes: [ 7s, 6h, Ts ] or [ Td, Tc, 9d ], the difference between Aces and Jacks has decreased significantly. Pocket Aces is still the stronger hand, but it's strength versus the unknown cards my opponent is holding isn't that much better than pocket Jacks.

I'll stop for now and remind you that this entry is ...to be continued.

I have changed my blog settings, so that people can leave comments, without having to register as a blogger. Feel free to drop me a line, be it criticism or praise. I don't see any statistics on how many hits my blog has, so my only measure is the amount of feedback I get.
It is unfortunatly still not sure if this month will end on a good note profit wise. I am not playing my A game after my loosing streak, but that should mean good news for my blog. As I'll spend more time reading and writing about the game.

The crazy gear

Sometimes I find myself in the small blind raising two limper with a pair of Kings and see the entire table fold down. The cards have just not been very good at this table and I have gotten myself a nitty-tight image. In that spot I sometimes change into my crazy gear for that table only. I'll lower my raising standards drastically and pump up my aggression post-flop, continuation betting and semi-bluffing at a much wilder rate.

Firstly I exploit my image to steal a couple of pots, often in itself netting a good profit. But the crazy gear also throws my opponents offguard, building for profitable situations later.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind before employing this tactic.
Change from one hand to the next, don't loosen it up over time. If you take your time getting used to playing crazy, your opponents get the same amount of time seeing you loosening up.
Keep it up for only a couple of orbits, until you see your opponents catching on. It stops being profitable and starts being unprofitable as soon as they notice the change.
Be aware of the callingstations, don't run of all your money on a three-barrel bluff against a player who has only one button on his Party Poker interface.
Lastly keep in mind that you played crazy for a couple of rounds on that table, if you happen to pick up a great hand later, say if you flop a set. Try to evoke that image of yourself again, perhaps by overbetting the pot or check-raising your opponent.

Anyways poker has been good lately. The month is starting to bring some profit and I feel I am playing well. Hopefully this will not stop me from writing. Although I usually don't feel poetic unless I have been chewing on some bad beat for a while ;)

The variance in poker

Roller coaster or the Merry-Go-Round?

Today really reminded me how poker is a Roller coaster, with large ups and downs.
I started the day up $500, after a 800 hand session. My second session of the day started quite ok, until I got a pair of Kings in the BB. Offcourse the Button had Aces and I doubled him up. Fortunatly though he wasn't very deep and I only lost $200. After that I lost with my own pairs of Aces twice to my opponents' pairs of Kings. One of which I slowplayed it pre-flop and doged an all-in because of a very weak opponent, so only $250 down on that one.

All in all though I got it turned around in the end and quit poker for today at a positive $230 or so. As I reflect on the day I can't help but see how easily 3 buy-ins can go down the drain without any hope for prevention.
My bankroll for $400 buy-in NL is $8000, yet just today I could have made all the right plays and still be down $1200 if the cards so decided.
I know that many advise a bankroll of more than 20 buy-ins. Some say 25 to 30 others say 50 and yet others go so far as to recommend 100 buy-ins. I rather employ a sliding scale, where I move down to $200 buy-in NL if unfortune would bring my roll down to $4000 and thus ensuring that I never go bust.

I have to underline though that I only 4-table $400 buy-in NL and I employ a conservative style most of the time. LAG'ish play and more multitabling puts heavier swings on your roll. And more important still is the skill level of your opponents, the less your edge the more the swings. So I wouldn't want to play $1000 buy-in NL with only 20 buy-ins.

Let me end this entry with a picture of my little
corner of the world. I have 2 17'' monitors and a noisy Shuttle PC. Have just made myself a Peanut Butter & Jelly sandwich and a cup of coffee, so I am ready for some work (poker).

The poster is of Trinity from Matrix: Reloaded and also I don't know if you can make it out but my headphones have subwoffers :)

NL - The cadillac of poker

Where does my profit come from, in NL cash?

Sklansky put it well when he said: "Everytime opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain." (Theory of Poker)
So simply put my profit comes from the mistake of others, yet that doesn't say that much about how to play.

• Stealing blinds

A small part of my profit comes from stealing the blinds. I raise it and everyone folds. Another profitable move, that I employ is the Barry Play - as seen in High Stakes Poker on GSN, named after the player Barry Greenstein. The move is to raise it up after a couple of limpers, hence not only aiming to steal the blinds but also the money from the limpers.

• Continuation betting

Cont. betting accounts for another small part of my profit. If I am called, by one opponent, after a raise I very often bet out again regardless of what flopped. In effect I state that my hand was best pre-flop and it still is. If the flop failed to hit my opponent he is likely to fold.

• Having the better hand

A substantial part of my profits come from having a better hand at showdown. I aim to play a little tighter than my opponents, thus more often than not having them out paired, or out kickered. Sometimes your opponents are so nitty tight that you'll profit more by loosening up and trying to maximize your profit from Stealing Blinds and Cont. betting. But mostly it is more profitable to aim for a tighter pre-flop hand selection, than your opponents.

• Set hunting

Flopping a set and taking an opponents entire stack, when he flops top pair or has an overpair to the flop, accounts for quite a noticable part of my profits.

• Drawing

Some part of my profit comes from hitting a flush or straight draw. Offcourse the odds, actual or implied, have to be there before drawing becomes profitable.

If I should venture a guess as to the proportion of the fives profitability, this would be it:

1. Having the better hand - 45%
2. Other - 20%
3. Set hunting - 15%
4. Drawing - 10%
5. Continuation betting - 5%
6. Stealing blinds - 5%

These number are again just a guess, not even a well thought out estimate. Also I imagine the numbers change as you move up or down in levels, or from site to site.

First entry

Let me begin my first entry with a picture.

This is the lone picture of myself I have on my computer, so it'll have to do for now. It was taken with my cell phone by Trondur - a friend - at the Copenhagen airport on our way home from USA.

I start this diary after a loosing week at poker. Unfortunatly joy and happiness are not what leads me to write. So this step of mine to recount my poker adventures, inevitably had to start after a bad streak.
My bankroll is still healthy and I just cashed out $3000 before the bad streak started, so all is still good.

I have been playing for a little over 2 years, almost solely online. A bit more than a year ago I quit my job and gave poker a real shot and I am gladly still going.

Currently I am trying my luck at $200 and $400 buy-in NL 6 max cash games.

Pictures that I have on my blog will be hosted in this entry.